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What the allowance actually buys
One allowance here buys 8,570 EXP, which places it 6th of the 6 Lv 20 Carpenter tradecraft leves that record EXP. The best of them, Militia on My Mind, returns 28,010 EXP for the same allowance, 227% more.
Across that rung the return runs from 8,570 EXP to 28,010 EXP per allowance — 6 distinct figures spanning 227%, so the wrong pick leaves 19,440 EXP of the allowance unspent.
On whether to wait: the best Lv 25 Carpenter tradecraft leve returns 47,200 EXP per allowance, 69% more than the best on this rung, while the Lv 15 rung behind tops out at 24,790 EXP.
At Lv 20 this data holds 52 leves paying EXP across 2 categories: the 48 Tradecraft ones average 17,352 EXP per allowance, the 4 Fieldcraft ones 113,304 EXP, which puts this leve 51% below its own category's average.
Gil ranks it differently: 295 gil per allowance is 1st of 6 on the same rung against 6th on EXP, with the best there paying 295 gil.
Walnut Lumber ×1 is a Lv 25 Carpenter recipe, a single step, costing 3 units of raw material and 2 crystals.
Handing that in returns 2,857 EXP and 98 gil for every unit of raw material the order swallows.