Actually, It's Loyalty
Location
Required Items
Rewards
What the allowance actually buys
One allowance here buys 72,600 EXP, the best on the Lv 35 Goldsmith tradecraft rung — matched exactly by 1 other leve of the 6 there, with the rest trailing at 50,380 EXP or less.
Across that rung the return runs from 30,230 EXP to 72,600 EXP per allowance — 4 distinct figures spanning 140%, so the wrong pick leaves 42,370 EXP of the allowance unspent.
On whether to wait: the best Lv 40 Goldsmith tradecraft leve returns 79,510 EXP per allowance, 10% more than the best on this rung, while the Lv 30 rung behind tops out at 67,730 EXP.
At Lv 35 this data holds 52 leves paying EXP across 2 categories: the 48 Tradecraft ones average 61,959 EXP per allowance, the 4 Fieldcraft ones 378,392 EXP, which puts this leve 17% above its own category's average.
Aquamarine Bracelet ×1 is a Lv 38 Goldsmith recipe, 2 steps deep through 2 intermediates, costing 5 units of raw material and 18 crystals.
Handing that in returns 14,520 EXP and 119 gil for every unit of raw material the order swallows, and the tree needs Blacksmith and Goldsmith.